BMI: Venezuela to remain major oil exporter

LOS ANGELES
June 25, 2009

Venezuela will account for 8.13% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 26.46% of supply, according to the latest Venezuela Oil and Gas Report by analyst BMI.

Latin America regional oil use of 6.66 million b/d in 2001 reached an estimated 7.61 million b/d in 2008, according to BMI. It should average 7.57 million b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.23 million b/d by 2013, BMI said.

Regional oil production was just under 10.4 million b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.89 million b/d. It is set to rise to 10.58 million b/d by 2013.

“Oil exports are slipping because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion,” BMI said, adding that in 2001, “the region was exporting an average 3.73 million b/d.”

This total fell to an estimated 2.28 million b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.35 million b/d in 2013. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Brazil.

Regarding natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an estimated 191.3 billion cubic meters (bcm), with demand of 254.3 bcm targeted for 2013, representing 32.9% growth.

Estimated production of 207.4 bcm in 2008 should reach 289.9 bcm in 2013, and implies 35.7 bcm of net exports by the end of the period.

Venezuela contributed an estimated 15.95% to 2008 regional gas consumption, while producing 14.7%. By 2013, Venezuela is expected to consume 19.41% of the region's gas, while contributing 18.97% to supply.

“We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of 2.8 million b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 2.35 million b/d in 2009,” BMI said.

Consumption beyond the economic weakness of 2009-10 is forecast to increase by 3%/year to 2013, implying demand of 669,000 b/d by then and yielding an export capability of about 2.13 million b/d by 2013.

Gas production is forecast to rise from an estimated 30.5 bcm in 2008 to 55 bcm over the period, allowing 5.7 bcm of exports by 2013.

“Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan oil production of 20.6%, with liquids volumes dipping to 2.35 million b/d in 2009 before rising steadily to 3.1 million b/d by 2018,” the analyst said.

Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 27.5%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3%/year towards the end of the period and the country using 775,000 b/d by 2018.

Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from 30.5 bcm in 2008 to 78 bcm in 2018. With demand growth of 106.5%, this implies export potential rising to 15 bcm by 2018.



Story by Eric Watkins from Oil & Gas Journal
OGJ 06/23/2009

Venezuela Government Perspective on the future of petroleum

Chávez opens the doors of Petrocaribe

Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez said on Friday that the doors of Petrocaribe are open to "whoever willing to join" the strategic alliance.

During the opening session of the 6th Petrocaribe Summit in Saint Kitts and Nevis, in the Eastern Caribbean, the president highlighted the importance of the financing facility which proposes an alliance amidst the global crisis, DPA reported.

"The doors are open to whoever willing to join Petrocaribe," said Chávez and added that the financing facility "is a vital issue for our countries."

"The human aspect takes precedence over the geographical extent of Petrocaribe and its geopolitical clout. Remember that near 50 million people are parties to this initiative. Therefore, we should deepen Petrocaribe and create new cooperation mechanisms," he recommended.

Chávez suggested a partnership between Petrocaribe and the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA). The latter is a bloc bolstered by Venezuela and Cuba against free trade.

"While the ALBA is a pro-socialist core, unlike Petrocaribe, both of them complement each other, and they need to affect each other," he added.

President Chavez says Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) is NOT in trouble

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez denied that state-owned oil giant PDVSA was in financial trouble, dismissing gloomy media accounts about impending bankruptcy as "another lie of the bourgeoisie to make people believe that the socialist project is impossible."

"A lie that from being repeated so much" tries "to make people think it's true, so that in the collective mind the idea forms that the socialist project is impossible," the president said during his weekly radio and television show on Sunday.

Last year, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) went from being the world's No. 8 oil company to No. 4, but "in the press of the bourgeoisie they put out reports every day that it is bankrupt," Chavez said. "The real truth is there for the world to see, but the oligarchy's press tries to cover it up ... the one that's bankrupt is capitalism," Chavez said, adding that he was happy that the price of Venezuelan petroleum had recovered, reaching $61.30 per barrel last week, up $5 from the previous week.

Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez, who is PDVSA's chief, said on Chavez' program that oil prices were rebounding thanks to the production cuts implemented by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. Last week, PDVSA held its annual meeting and the financial figures to be released on Monday will disprove all the reports about problems at the company, Ramirez said.

PDVSA "grew in terms of physical assets to $71 billion (in 2008), invested $15 billion and made allocations of $53 billion to the state," up 20.5 percent from 2007, the energy minister said. The state-owned oil company posted a profit of $9.4 billion in 2008, up 50 percent from the $6.27 billion profit registered in the previous year, Ramirez added.

Original source: lath.com

Venezuela say hands Russia oil project in Carabobo

Venezuela will work with Russian companies Lukoil and Rosneft to extract oil from two areas in the Carabobo region, the government said on Wednesday, apparently undermining a bidding round for the same blocks.

The Carabobo I Center and North blocks will now be developed in a joint venture with Consorcio Ruso, Venezuela's official government gazette said. The Russian consortium includes Rosneft , Gazprom , Lukoil , TNK-BP and Surgutneftegaz.

The same blocks in the Orinoco heavy crude region, in the east of the OPEC nation, are included in an auction process that began last year for seven subdivisions of the Carabobo area.

The agreement did not mention the auction process.

Consorcio Ruso was one of 19 groups that paid $2 million for information about the three projects to build upgraders that turn the Orinoco's tar-like oil into a valuable synthetic product.

Other participating oil majors include, including BP , Chevron , Shell ), Norway's StatoilHydro and France's Total .

Venezuela had expected to complete the deals by mid-2009.

Venezuelan law requires that state oil company PDVSA hold a majority stake in all upstream oil venture.

The Orinoco belt currently produces around 600,000 barrels per day of heavy crude, most of which is upgraded into lighter synthetic oil at four facilities.

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez took over the four multibillion dollar projects last year, pushing out oil giants ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil in the process.

 

Story by Frank Jack Daniel from Reuters
Reuters 06/03/2009 

Venezuela oil min sees oil at near $70 year-end

Oil demand is gradually improving and oil prices should climb to near $70 by year's end, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Friday, a day after OPEC agreed to maintain production.

The comment comes after the powerful Saudi oil minister said this week that he believed the recuperating world economy was ready to cope with prices as high as $75 to $80 a barrel, around the level that the world's top producer has said is fair.

"We expect (prices) to be near $70 at the end of the year," Ramirez, one of the more hawkish voices in the cartel, told Reuters after meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso in Tokyo. "The market looks like it's recovering."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday held output steady and instead bet on economic growth and recovering demand to drive the oil market, a move economists said risked overtaxing consumers coping with recession.[ID:nLS12120]

"OPEC will be ready to have balance in the market," he said.

OPEC-member Venezuela has been aggressively seeking investments from Asia, eyeing China and Japan for new sources of financing to fill a budget gap left by a tumble in oil prices from a record high last summer.

Last month, Japan and Venezuela agreed on a broad cooperation to develop oil and gas projects in the Latin American nation.

Source :Reuters.

Trade, development top agenda for Lula-Chavez meet

Trade between South American nations and bilateral development are set to top talks Tuesday between Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The leaders, to meet in Brazil's northeastern city of Salvador de Bahia, represent Latin America's biggest oil exporter and the region's biggest economy.

Chavez's bid to see his country join the Mercosur trade bloc was expected to be one of the key issues on the table, but the leftist president made no specific mention of it on Monday.

"We have decided to speed up all cooperation agreements between Brazil and Venezuela," Chavez told official television station VTV, emphasizing an agreement with Federal Caixa, Brazil's main state-owned bank.

"We want to help Lula's experiment in building housing in the slums of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, and with creating a savings system."

Chavez added that the pair would sign a document Tuesday to create a public banking network and housing programs, as well as agreements on agriculture and food production.

Brazil's senate is poised to vote on ratifying full Mercosur membership to Venezuela, though debate has been peppered with criticism from a few senators that Chavez is too authoritarian to be accepted.

Venezuela applied for membership to the bloc in 2006, and its accession has already been approved by Argentina and Uruguay. In late April, Chavez said he hoped Venezuela would become a member before Tuesday's meeting.

Lula and Chavez are also expected to discuss a 10-billion-dollar credit line Venezuela has requested from Brazil's BNDES development bank, diplomatic sources in Caracas said.

Chavez last week received the president of BNDES, Luciano Coutinho, to flesh out the request.

Bilateral trade between Venezuela and Brazil amounted to 5.7 billion dollars last year, heavily weighted in favor of Brazilian imports, according to the Federation of Brazil-Venezuela Chambers of Commerce.

The presidents have been holding regular meetings since 2007 to find ways to boost cooperation between their countries.

Story from AFP 
AFP 05/26/2009 09:19